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2022-08-01
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Zhouxiaochuan: satisfied with the current interest rate level

Guide: dealing with inflation: be cautious, face it squarely and focus on the long-term. There is still a lot of room for further increase in the deposit reserve ratio. It is expected that the inflation pressure will not be great next year. Zhouxiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, said recently that he is satisfied with the current interest rate level, but the central bank will still pay close attention to the future statistical data

coping with inflation: be cautious, face it squarely and focus on the long term

there is still a lot of room for further increase in the deposit reserve ratio. It is expected that the inflation pressure will not be great next year

zhouxiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, said recently that he is satisfied with the current interest rate level, but the central bank will still pay close attention to the future statistical data. It is necessary to add an oil replenishment unit to the system to automatically adjust the oil volume in the pipeline; China does not need to adjust the interest rate too frequently, but it does not rule out the possibility of continued adjustment

when asked about the possibility of another interest rate hike in the near future, zhouxiaochuan said that he did not want to talk about the long-term prospects, but at least it would not be the week of the 19th. "The interest rate level of the central bank always depends on the economic data, so we will continue to pay close attention to the future economic data."

as for which economic data the central bank will pay special attention to, zhouxiaochuan said, "the analysis of many economic data is very complex." He also said that the central bank does not expect great inflation pressure next year. When setting the annual inflation target, the central bank will consider correcting the original traditional price distortion factors

during the meeting of the bank for International Settlements in South Africa, more than 600 pre meeting experts focused on the "development and innovation" situation of the new material industry. Ogawa Xiang said that he would continue to recover liquidity by increasing the deposit reserve ratio; There is still much room for the reserve ratio to be further increased. In fact, the pace of raising the deposit reserve ratio will continue. He said that the effect of any tool is limited, but there is still room to continue. Zhouxiaochuan also said that there is too much liquidity in the international market, and the growth rate of China's foreign exchange reserves is still relatively fast

he said that although the monthly inflation data fluctuated, most economists expected the annual inflation rate to be about 4.5% this year; The central bank does not expect much inflation pressure next year. As China is gradually transitioning from a planned economy to a market economy, the central bank is faced with the task of correcting the price distortion in many fields such as public transport and facilities, which means that the inflation rate will rise

when attending the G20 finance ministers' and central bank meetings, zhouxiaochuan also said that there are many ways to improve the flexibility of the RMB. At present, the floating range of RMB exchange rate is reasonable. We will consider expanding the floating range of RMB exchange rate when necessary, which depends on the global economic situation. He said that China would try its best to support a strong dollar and hoped to see a strong dollar

Lucas, the master of rational expectation and Nobel Prize winner in economics, once had a famous saying about inflation expectation: "we can't tell whether we expect inflation because of inflation, or whether we expect inflation because of inflation", but 5 There is no doubt about the rule of reference conditions, and expectation plays an important role in determining the price level

the pace of interest rate hike is approaching again.

the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 6.5% in October, returning to the nearly 11 year high set in August, which once again triggered people's reverie about interest rate hikes

since the release of macroeconomic data for the first three quarters on October 25, almost every weekend has been regarded as a sensitive period for interest rate hikes by some market participants. But recently, key officials of the central bank have repeatedly said that whether to raise interest rates remains to be seen. So, what are the concerns about raising interest rates again

interest rate hike still needs to narrow the interest rate spread

on the one hand, the inflation pressure has not been reduced. In October, the consumer price index (CPI) reappeared to the annual high of 6.5%, and the real negative interest rate has further increased; On the one hand, the "high fever" of bank loans persisted, and new loans reached a record high in the same period, becoming a "booster" for the excessive growth of fixed asset investment and asset prices

how to see the record high deposit reserve ratio

for those who care about the economy, "deposit reserve" has become a familiar term

recently, the central bank announced again that it would raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points from November 26, the ninth time this year and the fourteenth time since 2003. So far, the deposit reserve ratio has climbed to 13.5%, the highest level in history since the people's Bank of China specially exercised the functions of the central bank in 1984

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