The hottest prospect 2011 new energy will no longe

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Looking forward to 2011, new energy will no longer blossom

in 2010, the Chinese government will list new energy as one of the seven strategic emerging industries that will be focused on development and give key support. With favorable policies and favorable domestic and foreign markets, the domestic new energy industry in 2010 can be described as "in full swing". Solar energy, wind energy and nuclear energy bloomed, and relevant equipment enterprises made a lot of money

2011 is the first year of the 12th Five Year Plan. Benefiting from the new energy plan, the nuclear energy field will show a trend of "big work and fast progress" in the future, and upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry are expected to benefit from it; In the field of solar energy, with the increase of domestic production capacity, the price may go out of the track of high opening and low going; After years of free development, the wind energy industry will enter the period of reshuffle of leading enterprises in 2011, and it is expected that there will be several internationally influential large enterprises in the industry

2010 closed smoothly, and thanks to the policy, the domestic new energy industry was booming. Wind energy, solar energy, nuclear energy and other new energy enterprises are profitable, and the industry joked: "in 2010, enterprises got cramped after counting money."

in 2011, it may be difficult for the new energy industry to see such a flourishing scene, and the development prospect of the industry will be differentiated

solar energy: high open and low go

in 2010, the solar energy industry can be described as "low open and high go". At the beginning of the year, the price of polysilicon was still hovering between US dollars per kilogram, but in June, the market began to rise

in June, 2010, the price of domestic polysilicon rose to about $0 per kilogram of plastic tested by 6 impact testing machine. After entering July, the price of polysilicon began to rise. In late August, it stood at the $70 per kilogram level. In September, the spot price of polysilicon broke through $90 per kilogram and jumped over $100 at one time. Today, although the price of polysilicon has fallen, it is still stable at about $90, about twice the price at the beginning of 2010

"this round of polysilicon price rise is mainly the result of changes in the relationship between supply and demand, and the market mechanism is at work." Meng Xiangan, vice president of China Renewable Energy Association, said that the orders of photovoltaic cells and module enterprises were good this year, which led to a sharp rise in the demand for polysilicon and led to the rise in prices

it is reported that in 2010, the global photovoltaic industry was much more optimistic than expected. In order to cope with a steady stream of orders, most battery and module manufacturers had to operate at full capacity and expand production one after another

Wang Bohua, Secretary General of China photovoltaic industry alliance, said that the market for solar cells continued to improve, driving the increase in demand for upstream polysilicon materials. Germany, the world's largest photovoltaic market, has successively reduced photovoltaic subsidies since July 2010. Many system integrators have rushed to complete system installation before the reduction of subsidies, resulting in the early release of the market and the increase of the atmosphere of the polysilicon market. In addition, based on good market expectations, many photovoltaic enterprises in China have expanded their production on a large scale, and the new battery capacity has increased the demand for China's polysilicon market

in the case of increased demand, the supply has not increased

at present, many polysilicon manufacturers in China find that the orders received are far greater than their own capacity. Many polysilicon manufacturers not only have sufficient orders, but also have limited ability to continue to supply polysilicon to the market. Among them, Ledian Tianwei and Xinguang silicon industry Jinan experimental machine factory Jinan new period gold testing instrument Co., Ltd. have been locked by polysilicon long single for many years, and the supply of polysilicon to the market is limited. In addition, since September 2010, the polycrystalline silicon produced by Jiangsu Zhongneng mainly meets the needs of its own production of solar silicon wafers. The primary and secondary silicon materials are basically no longer sold on the market, and only a small amount of tertiary silicon materials are used to meet the needs of regular customers. Jiangxi LDK said that the silicon material produced by the company is mainly to meet its own production

the booming scene of soaring polysilicon prices and full orders has made polysilicon enterprises make a lot of money this year. In addition to being happy, industry experts have doubts about the price trend next year

Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Suntech Wuxi, believes that at present, the price of photovoltaic power generation terminal market in the world is falling. The electricity price in Germany fell by about 15% in July and 10% in 2011. In order to maintain this market, the cost of solar power generation on traditional racing engines must continue to fall. The cost of the whole industrial chain should be reduced, and the current rise in polysilicon prices is unsustainable

analysts said that the global polysilicon production is expected to be about 102000 tons in 2010, and the demand is 117000 tons. The overall supply and demand is balanced, with a slight gap; It is estimated that in 2011, the global demand for polysilicon will reach 144000 tons, and the output will be 152000 tons. The supply and demand are basically balanced, and the supply exceeds the demand. The price of polysilicon may also turn in 2011, and the price will begin to fall

Shi Dinghuan, counselor of the State Council and director of China Renewable Energy Society, said that when the price of polysilicon soared last time, China did not have enough capacity. Now China has large-scale polysilicon production enterprises, with tens of thousands of tons of polysilicon. 4. After clamping the samples, do not "zero" the load value of the material base. With the existence of these capacity, it is possible to curb the price rise. In addition, Shi Dinghuan also said, "in the long run, with the improvement of technology, the price of polysilicon should still decline."

"high opening and low going" has become a consensus. Now, enterprises in the industry can only hope that the "bullet" of polysilicon price can fly longer

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