The hottest supply is gradually increased, and Sha

Supply gradually increased, and Shanghai Rubber and Shenzhen made a wide adjustment

since the end of July, natural rubber has shown a sharp downward adjustment trend after rising for a time. In the international market, natural rubber gradually shows signs of seasonal adjustment in the peak tapping season; In the domestic market, the strong spot price and low inventory make the rubber price show a pattern of near strength and far weakness. However, with the relatively obvious growth of inventory in Shanghai, the pressure of tight supply slows down. (2) the second process is to stick the protective film solution, the short selling momentum of short sellers is effectively released, and the price of Tianjiao shows a sharp correction trend

1. The slowdown in demand suppressed the price of rubber

as the price of crude oil continued to rise, the global automotive industry also generally experienced a low tide of consumption. According to the latest data released by automobile manufacturers, the annual sales volume of vehicles in the U.S. market in July was 12.5 million, far lower than the 17million in 2005, falling to a 16 year low. The declines of general motors, Ford and Toyota were all in double digits. New car sales in the U.S. market fell by about 18% in June, the lowest monthly sales record in 15 years. The overall sales volume in the U.S. market decreased by about 1189000 vehicles, down 18.3% year-on-year. Since the beginning of this year, oil shortages have broken out in many regions in China, affecting the use of cars. In June, the automobile production was 837200, with a month on month decrease of 1.98% and a year-on-year increase of 13.96%; Sales of 836800 vehicles, a month on month increase of 0.15%, a year-on-year increase of 15.35%, and the production and sales rate was 99.95%. Compared with may, the automobile production in June decreased slightly, and the sales volume increased slightly, among which the production and sales of commercial vehicles decreased significantly, and passenger vehicles increased slightly. The Forecasting Department of J.D. Power Asia Pacific, which provides consulting services to the automotive, information technology and financial industries, announced that it would cut its previous forecast of China's passenger car demand. The reduction rate is 4%, from 6.2 million at the beginning of the year to 5.95 million. Compared with the sales of 5.42 million passenger cars in 2007, the adjusted growth rate still reached 9.7%. J. D. power said that this was the first time since 2003 that the growth rate was less than 10%. China's new car market has slowed down for the first time in the rapid development of several consecutive years

automobile sales have slowed down, and tire enterprises have also been attacked internally and externally. China's tire manufacturing industry relies on exports for 40% of its products, which is a typical export-oriented industry. Tire consumption is closely related to the world economy. With the slowdown of economic growth, the tire and rubber market will face the dual clamping of weak demand and high rubber cost for a long time, which will have an initial friction impact on the clamping surface. From the monthly output of tires, we can see that Boyun Xincai (002297) has formed a stable production, study and research platform relying on the University of Nanjing. Since May and June, the tire output has begun to decline month on month. If the customer has no requirements,

in addition to the peripheral environment that is not conducive to tire export, national policies and the product structure of domestic rubber also have factors that are not conducive to the increase of rubber consumption. Macro-control and industrial tightening policies also inhibit the export of rubber products to a certain extent. First, the tax rebate was reduced from 13% to 5% last year. Second, imported raw materials are not allowed to be processed in the bonded area this year. In this way, the tax rebate in the bonded area has been reduced from 20% to 8%, and the export profits of tire enterprises have shrunk significantly. With the all steel radial tire gradually replacing the bias tire as the main export product, the enterprises with an annual production of bias truck tire whose proportion is still higher than that of all steel radial truck tire are under greater pressure

the slowdown of automobile sales will have an adverse impact on tire consumption. At the same time, the inhibition of high price natural rubber on demand will appear in the third quarter, and the slowdown of demand will suppress the price of rubber

2. With the peak season of rubber cutting coming, the supply is expected to increase

in August, Thailand, the world's largest rubber producer, entered the peak production season, and the prospect of natural rubber market is relatively soft. After the rainy weather in July was suspended, rubber farmers in southern Thailand began to cut rubber again. Some exporters said that the rubber supply will peak in August, and the rubber price in Thailand may decline by 20%. The Ministry of agriculture of Thailand previously estimated that the rubber production in 2008 was 3.1 million tons, but traders and exporters estimated that it was 2.9 million tons. Because the wet season lasted longer than expected, the rubber cutting work in May and June was interrupted

the Thai Rubber Association predicts that the output of natural rubber in Thailand this year is expected to increase from 3.06 million tons last year to 3.1 million tons, and the export volume is 2.7 million tons, with an annual increase of 2% respectively. The global output of natural rubber is expected to be 10million tons this year, slightly higher than the global annual consumption demand of 9.74 million tons. The supply and demand of the whole year are basically balanced

a senior official of the rubber board, the fourth largest rubber producer in the world, said that India's rubber production increased by 30.4% in the first four months of 2008/09 due to the increase in rubber tapping. The official said that India's total monthly natural rubber production was 238865 tons, higher than 183220 tons in the same period last year

if the weather in the main production area is good in August and the rubber cutting is successfully completed, the supply is expected to increase significantly, thereby easing the pressure of tight supply, which will make the rubber price face a fall

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