The hottest supply season is approaching, and Shan

As the peak supply season approaches, Shanghai Rubber fell violently

affected by the abundant supply in the late stage and the weakness of surrounding markets, Shanghai Rubber surged again in early May, hitting a new high in the year, and then fell back to yuan/ton. Is the rubber price that appears to be on the high side going up after adjustment or going down after building an m-head? Taking all factors into consideration, we believe that there is a greater possibility of shock and decline

in terms of supply, short-term supply and demand are still tight, but the approaching peak supply season puts pressure on the price. Although the good weather conditions this year have advanced the cutting period, the weather conditions in Southeast Asia are not good after cutting, and continuous rainfall has affected the rubber cutting process. This year, the growth of rubber trees is generally good, and the supply should be large if there is no accident. At present, the stock and warehouse receipts of Tianjiao in the previous period are at a low level. When Shanghai Jiaotong fell sharply in late April, warehouse receipts decreased significantly, reflecting that the market supply was indeed limited. On May 9, the IRCO meeting reached a consensus that the export price should not be lower than US $1.35 per kilogram (str20). The supply restriction policy of rubber producing countries is mainly to prevent the excessive decline of rubber price, which has no material impact under the current market condition that the price of natural rubber is as high as $1.7/kg

the downstream demand of Tianjiao is still relatively strong, but the growth trend may slow down. There was some optimism in the U.S. auto market in April, but the data showed that the U.S. auto sales did not improve substantially, but still hovered at the bottom. The consumption of commercial vehicles in Europe continued to be depressed, but the consumption of passenger vehicles rebounded significantly due to the impact of the automobile consumption stimulus policy. According to the data of the German Association of Automobile Importers, the sales volume of new cars in the first four months of this year was the best level since 1999, and the sales volume in April increased by 40% month on month. China sold 1153100 cars in April, up 3.91% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of more than 20%. The policy of revitalizing the automobile market has greatly stimulated the upsurge of passenger car consumption, and the automobile industry has become the only leading industry in China's economic recovery. As the waste heat of the policy will continue to be released, the car market may continue to grow in May. The overall overseas tire market is still sluggish. The booming of China's automobile industry has driven the tire industry. In April, China's tire production increased by 13.7% year-on-year to 58.15 million. However, tire enterprises reported that orders fell in May and June. The sluggish foreign demand makes the export performance poor. If there is no significant improvement in the third quarter, the momentum of tire demand may be insufficient

in the rising market of bulk commodities since 2009, the trend of many varieties has converged. The trend of rubber price and copper price, which are closely related to the macroeconomic situation, especially the industrial economic situation, are particularly consistent. Using the daily closing price data from January 5 to May 12, 2009, the linear correlation between Shanghai Jiao index and Shanghai copper index is 0.9052, while using the daily closing price data from March 16 to May 12, 2009, the linear correlation reaches 0.9374. In the case of very abundant market liquidity, the financial attribute of bulk commodities has been greatly enhanced, and the linkage of industrial futures prices has become the norm. On the disk, the leading role of Shanghai copper is obvious. Combined with the lack of impulse energy on the copper price, it may have a negative impact on Shanghai rubber

although the economies of Europe and Japan are still declining and the recovery prospects are uncertain, the decline of the real economy in the United States, the locomotive of the global economy, has shrunk significantly, and market expectations for the future economy have improved significantly. There may be twists and turns in the path of China's economic recovery, but the signs of recovery are clear and have formed a trend. This will support the whole commodity price, and the price focus will continue to move upward. As far as the rubber market is concerned, June is the peak supply season, and abundant supply is a high probability event. China's demand growth may encounter a bottleneck month on month. Downstream rubber companies may have to gradually face up to the situation of excessive production capacity, which is often classified as the surplus of plastic machinery or the weak private economy. If overseas demand, especially the U.S. demand, has not improved, the current optimistic market expectation may need to be adjusted greatly. On the whole, the upward pressure on the current rubber price is great, but the space below is also limited. Electromechanical control of the engine running mechanical components. In May, the high price of rubber is more likely to fluctuate, and the large range of Shanghai Rubber index may be in yuan/ton. In June, the rubber price operation center has a downward demand, and may fall below 13800 yuan/ton

note: the source of water components absorbed into hydration products in this reprint is indicated. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content